Social Development was the key element to the success of our Scandinavian Model: Personal Freedom and Competitiveness with a set of transparent rules and welfare benefits to the “loosers”. That is probably why Scandinavians today feel and are ranked among the happiest in the world (link) and have the lowest poverty and deprivation rates in the EU (link).
To know you are well off in life and that your neighbours and friends are equally well off, is perhaps the kind of Equity that makes a society more human and thus prosperous in the long run. In the long run we are not just all “dead” as the British economist John Maynard Keynes put it, but we pass on the culture and socities we create today to our children.
I hope you Scots have this kind of vision for your future! If you know the objectives, it is much easier to know what to do next! By now it should be obvious that to me, the main question to be answered by the Scots on September 18 is not to be a part of the United Kingdom or not, but what kind of future you Scots envision?
Of course, a Sovereign Wealth Fund would be nice on this path. But Sweden and Denmark are doing very well in every economic or social statistic and their natural resources do not even come close to those of Scotland. Still, they have with their history managed to create modern Institutions – socities and businesses – among the best in Europe and the world. This kind of success The Economist called “getting to Denmark” (link).
Next, we are hopefully getting to Scotland.
If you would like to use this infographic, please do!
Remarks: The BBC quotes (link) the GDP per capita for Scotland and the UK 2013 respectively to £ 26.424 and £ 22.336 when Oil & Gas revenues stay in Scotland.
These figures are however at (nominal) “market prices” wehereas the OECD Long Term Economic Outlook (June 2013) figures are deflated (real) 2005 Dollars. From this perspective I use the OECD 2060 GDP per Capita for the UK (2013-2060: +126,7%) as for Scotland to add up the GDP per capita in 2060, thus in real PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) Dollars of 2005-2013 terms. The exchange rate I used is the official OECD Dollar-Pound rate of 2013: 0,639661.
Because I use this UK growth rate for Scotland too – OECD does not quote any explicit growth rate for Scotland, and without adding anything else (!), these figures are of some uncertainty and inaccuracy. This uncertainty also refers to the population growth rates. Nevertheless and …
However: These figures DO NOT INCLUDE the Boost of Independence nor Social Development (à la Scandinavia as I suggest on these pages) nor ICT Green Growth (Perez).
Norway 1905-1955: In this 50 years period after full Independece in 1905, the real! GDP per capita increased 240% according to the official Statistics Norway SSB.no (link). And that was LONG BEFORE OIL-NORWAY. I did NOT include anything like this in the infographic above!
The real GDP growth 1905-1955 was in fact 404%, despite two World Wars and German Nazi Occupation for 5 years.
I know, times are different, but if Carlota Perez and other researchers are correct, there is every reason to believe such or a similar increase of the GDP in Scotland towards the year 2060 is more than realistic thanks to ICT Green Growth. And Social Development 🙂
Please feel free to contact me or comment further down!
Vision Scotland2060 – click thumbnail to see all sizes:
and all infographic sizes – BIG, MEDIUM, SMALL
(1920 x 6000 px; 1,65 MB)
(1366 x 4269 px; 1,05 MB)
(800 x 2500 px; 533 MB)
2 thoughts on “8 – Prosperous Scotland 2060”
Can I ask some some questions here. Firstly, did Norway have the same level of destruction in WW2? Did they have to massively subsidise their major manufacturing industries to the point where they went bankrupt. Does the GDP per capita include tax and spending ability in those countries. Why do large sections if their population live in other countries. London for example has an enormous Norwegian population. From the experience of Alex Salmonds relationship with Fred Goodwin how can you be certain that Scotland would not suffer a banking crisis. Especially when you consider the size of the financial sector in Scotland. Why assume what happens in one country will happen in another. South Africa has a similar population to Britain. I don’t aspire to be like them and I’m sure they don’t assume they can be like us yet they have far greater natural resources than we do. The people are different, attitudes are different.
Hei Tom, thanks for posting!
“Why assume what happens in one country … ”
BjørnB: I don’t! I say, look to Norway/Scandinavia and copy the template for success! Of course, a bank crisis could happen anywhere/anytime.
Norway & Sweden had their in the early 1990s! Due to lax bank loan’s restrictions as Conservatives tried to copy Thatcher & Reagan liberal policies! As the bank crisis in the USA 2007/2008.
“… enormous Norwegian population in London”.
BjørnB: Probably some 5-7.000 (LINK), only 4% of Norwegians living abroad. However, many rich heirs/businessmen like Cecilia Middelfart or John Fredriksen go there to save their capital and pay less taxes.
“GDP per capita – tax/spending ability”
BjørnB: Yes, these OECD figures are deflated 2013 PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) figures – see link in infographic! In fact the OECD figures are PPP 2005 Dollars, but GDP/capita 2005 was slightly higher than 2013 due to financial crisis, so to make it easier to understand I set 2005=2013. The main point is the difference NO-UK & UK-Scotland!
On “WW2 destructions …”
BjørnB: I don’t really know for sure. The two northern regions Finnmark & Troms were totally burned down and population deplaced by the Germans as they withdrew from the Soviets 1944, but I guess Norwegian industry was pretty much intact 1945.
Norwegian GDP per capita 1950 was slighly lower than UK GDP, see this paper (LINK)! I cannot verify those figures though, but they give you a clue!
My main message to Scots was (and still is): if you copy the Scandinavian Model of Social Development (= personal freedom), you will according to researchers (Niall Ferguson, Acemoglu & Robinson, Stiglitz, Wilkinson & Pickett, James Galbraith, Daniel Sachs etc.) and int. organisations (OECD, Eurostat, UNDP, UNICEF etc.) be able to run your country better (more solide finances), become wealthier (higher GDP per capita) and more prosperous (investments in Scotland instead of London and England) and of course make people happier – much happier! LOL
Hope this will help you understand my approach!
Take a TRIP by yourself!
NORWAY – A Time-Lapse Adventure from Rustad Media on Vimeo.